Seventy years ago today, the Foreign Minsters of Russia and Germany singed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact which neutralised Russia at the start of World War II. According to Radio Free Europe the pact “gave Germany a free hand to attack Western Europe without having to fear a war on two fronts. In return, its secret protocol consigned Finland, Estonia, Latvia, the Romanian territory of Bessarabia, and a little later Lithuania, to the Soviet Union’s sphere of influence. Poland was partitioned between Germany and the USSR.” For these people, as Historian Orlando Figges says, “the pact began the reign of terror, mass deportations, slavery and murder”. Though the Pact was broken with the invasion of the USSR by Germany in 1941, it is notable that except for Poland and Finland, these territories remained part of the USSR until 1989. Until this year the USSR even denied the existence of the shameful secret protocol which divided these  independent democratic countries between the 2 powers.

The Pact is still painfully relevant. As Figges says the Pact remains “a constant thorn in Russia’s relations with neighbouring European states”, as Russia has shown repeatedly, and most recently in Georgia & Ukraine, that the Soviet notion of sphere of influence is very much alive in Russia’s foreign policy.

Last April the European Parliament called for “the proclamation of 23 August as a Europe-wide Remembrance Day for the victims of all totalitarian and authoritarian regimes, to be commemorated with dignity and impartiality”. For those European countries who still deal with the effects of totalitarianism on their country and their families, the 23 of August is a day that will remain in their hearts for all the wrong reasons.

Leonhard Lapin: Molotov-Ribbentrop - The uneasy alliance of hammer & sickle and swastika

The EU is having another busy August in Foreign policy, traditionally the month in which the EU normally all but shuts down (to the chagrin of many). Last August 6th, Russia turned its conflict with Georgia very hot when it invaded the internationally recognised Georgian territories of South Ossetia & Abkhazia. The EU and the world was in shock, Alexander Stubb - the very cool Finnish Foreign Minister admits that he had to cut his holidays “a few days short” as he went to play a decisive role in the ceasefire that has mantained an uneasy peace in the region.  Stubb notes in his Blog post from Saturday that “the possibility of renewed escalation of the crisis has caused concern” and indeed today the EU expressed its “concern” at the visit of Prime Minister Putin to Abkhaza, a region Russia now recognises as independent. Stubb suggests a number of actions that the EU can take to keep peace in the Region, manly focusing on support to Georgia including a strengthened partnersip and support for the ceasefire. What he doesn’t (and probably can’t) say is that effective containment of Russia is a necessary part of this also, but how to contain such a powerful neighbour - the EU s still, unfortunately, feeling its way.

As if this was not enough action, in addition to the above, the EU this week has already tightened travel-bans on those involved in the sentencing of Burmese leader Aung San Suu Kyi, condemned a deadly suicide bombing in the southern Russian republic of Ingushetia, been called to support monitoring of Isaeli nukes by the Arab League and signalled that it will impost harsher sanctions against Iran.

All this suggests that the newly strengthened (under the yet-to-be-approved Lisbon Treaty) High Representative for Foreign Policy will have plenty of work as will the newly created (under the same Treaty) President of the European Council will have plenty of work when appointed. But even then, I doubt they will resist the temptation to tempt fate and go on holidays next August - just as long as they keep their PDA on!

Some European Swimming Pools are likely to be empty this summer as the EU's foreign policy engagement leads to some unforeseen actions

I was really glad to read this Opinion piece by Andrew Moravcsik,  Director of the European Union Program at Princeton in this week’s Newsweek, as it draws a neat conclusion on some of the stories I’ve brought up in this Blog over the last number of months. My very first blog for the FPA was entitled “Will economic protectionism divide the EU” back in February. Thankfully Moravcsik’s simple conclusion is that economic protectionism hasn’t happened and the economic crisis has actually further unified the Union.

The European Union has often acted in the past as the whipping boy for Member State politicans for  the effects of some of its unpopular but necessary policies. Therefore it is actually qute unbelievable that that the catostrophic effects of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression has not weakened the Union and has actually had a unifying effect.  Many factors have affected this, including the radid informal March summit (on which I blogged)  where European leaders had to face each other and, in the process, collectively face away from intra-EU protectionism. However, a greater conclusion about the European Union itself must be drawn. As Moravcsik says “the crisis taught Europeans that if they want to protect their prosperity, there is no alternative to tighter policy coordination” - it appears that the EU has proved that it has an undeniable underlying logic for Europeans and it must be concluded that it will be providing solutions for economic, social & political problems for many years to come.

The EU's underlying logic means it will be around for years to come

The EU has started to take the issue of online shopping seriously recently given that a 2006 study estimated 56% of Europeans shopped online. It’s a multi-million (or maybe billion?) Euro market so it’s not surprising that the EU’s actions have attracted the attention of interested parties. As I noted in February Karl Lagerfeld came to Brussels to meet on the issue of the selling of luxury goods over the internet (which is bad for brand-owners as it “cheapens” teh brand) . The EU has come to the conclusion that luxury brand owners such as Lagerfeld should be able to insist that distributors sell both online as well as in regular “real-world” stores, a poke in the eye for ebay. But it’s not made up its mind entirely and has opened a public consultation on the matter here.

In May the EU also highlighted that it will seek to harmonise rules for the selling of digital conent throughout the EU. This will mean (for example) that an EU consumer cannot be stopped from dowloading a song from another EU country because the licence does not cover sale in the consumer’s country (an extremely frustrating experience for me especially when trying to dowload new Belgian music on my Irish credit card). EU Information Society and Media Commissioner Viviane Reding stated “in the EU, consumer rights online should not depend on where a company or website is based. National borders should no longer complicate European consumers’ lives when they go online to buy a book or download a song” . “In spite of progress made, we need to ensure that there is a single market for consumers as well as businesses on the web.” I agree heartily - please hurry up!

Is this WTO complaint taken by China against the EU regarding the importation of screws the first sign of an increasingly aggrssive Chinese attitude towards the EU regarding trade? With China being the only major economy with postive economic growth, it is less likely to kowtow to the rules of its trading partners.

Is Europe suffering from a hope-defict? Dominique Moisi a visiting professor at Harvard thinks so and he outlines (in the Brussels beltway premier Newspaper the European Voice) that this may delay Europe’s revovery from economic crisis. Citizens of the US, on the other hand, he believes suffer from an excess of individual fear of how the crisis will affect them (unemployment without benefits, sickness without healthcare). And he makes the point that we can each learn from each other. Europe can rouse ourselves from our “collective morosis” and learn  from the hope, optomism and sense of personal destiny of Americans. The US, on the other hand can learn from the social protections of Europe which enable a fairer society and a reduction of fear in citizens, the US must not maintain “a people armed to the teeth with guns yet entirely disarmed in the face of illness”.

It is a very thought-provoking Article and the author concludes that Europe will have a harder job of inculcating hope in its citizens than the US will in lessening its citizen’s fear. However, this, I belive underestimates the level of resistance within the political system. It’s often said that the US decentralised and fragmented political system comes up with the most innovative and often the best solutions to political problems, which it then resists like hell due to that same fragmented system, then often leaving Europe to steal and lead on these ideas. Will European politics now follow America’s lead and sew hope in its citizens? And will the US politcal system resist Obama’s healthcare proposals to death? In any case, it reminds us how much the US and Europe still have to learn from each other.

Hope needs to go to Europe! (with thanks to image from thegeographyofhope.com)

When the French Finance Minister says that the EU needs to cooperate with the US,  that’s when you know the economic crisis is really devestating! Perhaps that’s a bit unfair to the French, as Ms. Christine Lagarde in part of the most pro-US Government  in French history, under Americophile President Sarkozy. But it would also be unfair to Ms. Lagarde who has spent years working in a US company before entering government. She made her remarks at her acceptance of the Transatlantic Business Award from American Chamber of Commerce. However, she probably did more for US perceptions of the Franch in her appearance on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart a number of months ago (it helps that her english is absolutely perfect).  In her award-acceptence, she stated that the EU & the US could share common ground on major economic issues and stated that ties had to rebuilt after a period of strain, much like a marriage.

 Christine Lagarde, French Finance Minister.

As Jon Stewart of the Daily Show said, the unwritten understanding between the US  & Europe during the US elections was: We elect Obama, you love us again. A survey today in the Wall Street Journal shows that though this has generally true, the view of Europeans regarding the dominance of US culture is somewhat more nuanced. For example almost double the amount of Europeans feel the US has a negative influence on cultural affairs than a postive influence.  Two thirds still feel the US exerts a ngative influence on world affairs, however an even greater proportion feel this is changing.  

So the verdict of Europe’s citizens seems to be, the moves are good, but you’ve still got to win back our hearts

The secretariat of the European Council (the meeting of all the EU Heads of Government) on Monday released this  factsheet on how it is creating an “enabling environment” for EU Memebr-States if they accept former Guantanamo detainees. In it’s own words it is for detainees that are “cleared for release” and “expressed their will to be resettled within the EU” and whom “for compelling reasons cannot return to their home countries of origin”. Among the elements of the “enablign environment” will be a comprehensive informatin sharing system.

Italy is so-far the only countriy that has announced it will accept detainees under the new agreement. But Spain, Portugal, Ireland & France have previously indicated thay would accept detainees.

Update on 19th June: WSJ says that the EU may only accept up to a dozen detainees.

AFP is reporting that Europe & the US will shortly issue a joint declaration on the closure of Guantanamo which will stress the fundamental values of both in order to encourage the Europeans to help out in closing Guantanamo.  As I blogged before, EU governments are currently considering whether to accept inmates and get President Obama out of the political bind that is the relocation of these (mainly unprocecuteable and probably innocent) inmates. The European Council for Foreign Relations has called for Europe to grap the opportunity to cement transatlantic relations in their report:  Beyond the “War on Terrorism”: Tpward a new Transatlantic framework for Counterterrorism. The Justice Ministers of the EU will meet in June to explore the issue further.