EU at 50

Welcome, Mr. President, to one of the toughest jobs in global politics. You had a killer agenda planned, including the conclusion of an European pact on immigration and asylum, the creation of a functional Mediterranean Union (with the EU-Med Summit in two weeks’ time) and robust responses to the looming natural resource shortage. Already, you had prepared answers to a number of key questions - including the often controversial immigration pact - to ensure a smooth ratification that would allow for the spotlight to shine brightly on you and your achievements. You hoped that your results-based leadership of the Union would impress your ever-critical citizens at home, who bemoan the lack of progress on key domestic reforms. And indeed, as  a recent paper by the Bertelsmann Foundation underlines, Europe would have had a few things to look forward to, with respect to your approach to crucial foreign policy questions.

But now? Now that the Lisbon Reform Treaty lies all but in tatters? Now could really be your time to shine, M. le President. Instead,  you are already isolating and rebuking people left and right, be it the Commission President, the Union’s trade Commissioner or the Czech President. What a way to show everyone who’s boss..

How will the Irish ‘No’ affect your turn at the helm of the Union? Charles Grant, Director of the Centre for European Reform argues that you’ll have to listen to Irish concerns and are likely to focus on negotiating exemptions for the green island. But looking ahead to all the other countries now wavering in their support for the Treaty, will it be enough? And more importantly, perhaps for you - will it make you look good? Will you still be talking to the people that matter a few months down the line? We’ll be watching…

For the first time the incoming French EU Presidency has talked of unravelling the Lisbon Reform Treaty to accomodate Irish concerns. Speaking  in Brussels, French Secretary of State for European Affairs Jean-Pierre Jouyet said that the outcome of his President’s visit to Ireland in July would clarify whether ”there is a need to reopen or not to reopen the Treaty”. In their campaign against the Treaty, opponents had long stressed that the Irish government should renegotiate the pact to achieve “a better deal” for Ireland, notably the retention of an Irish Commissioner. At the European Council meeting in Brussels on June 19th and 20th, EU Heads of State and Goverment - most vocally French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel - had vehemently argued against reopening talks on the Treaty, pointing to the fact that exemption clauses for Ireland might be a way forward.

Already the Poles are using the Irish ‘No’ as an argument against accelerating the final steps in their national ratification process. The Polish government proved particularly tough in the final stages of the negotiation toward the compromise which constitutes the Lisbon Treaty. With doubt now spreading over how best to proceed, the Polish President has said he would hold off on pushing ahead with the last step in his country’s ratification process until it was clear that the Treaty would pass in all remaining countries. Many EU Member States have had amend their Constitutions, or in Poland’s case modify laws that regulate the collaboration of the legislative and executive branches of the government.

In the UK, meanwhile, Eurosceptic millionaire Stuart Wheeler has lost his bid to force Gordon Brown’s hand in putting the Lisbon Reform Treaty to a referendum.  Although Wheeler has sworn to appeal the High Court’s judgement that the Treaty showed “nothing’’ in the claimant’s case to cast any doubt on the lawfulness of ratifying the treaty without a public vote, experts believe ratification in the UK will go ahead as planned.

On May 29th the French Assemblée Nationale took a vote that might have profound impact on whether Turkey joins the European Union in a few years, or not. Making good on what his predecessor Jacques Chirac had promised all along, President Sarkozy and his ruling UMP party introduced a constitutional amendment, which would put future enlargements to include more populous countries - notably, of course, the extension of the Union to Turkey - to a popular vote in France. The Turkish government has been quick to criticize the move as discriminatory, as the amendment only demands a referendum for country’s that in size would represent 5% of the EU total population. Thus, such a vote would only be needed for Turkey and Ukraine, the most contested of the current candidates. The move is surely to put a hostile spin on the membership negotiations, which will be led by France once that country takes over the rotating Presidency of the European Council on July 1. Already, tensions have been rising between the two sides, with plenty of finger-pointing as to which side is responsible for the slow pace of negotiations on the so-called chapters, which define the necessary reform steps toward accession.

A referendum in France against the accession could force the hand of the government (handing the responsibility over to the people might allow the then-government to save face toward their Head-of-State counterparts, while playing the popular democratic card) to vote ‘No’ in the Council. As the enlargement of the Union requires unanimity in the Council, and depending on the pro and con campaigns once Turkey’s membership comes up for the vote, this could mean the end of the country’s hopes toward becoming one of the largest and most populous in the Union.

Angela Merkel, German Chancellor, received Europe’s most prestigious honor on May 1: the international Charlemagne Prize. Previous winners include US President Bill Clinton, former EU Commission President Jacques Delors, Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker and Europe’s “Mr. Foreign Policy,” Javier Solana. None other than French President Nicolas Sarkozy delivered the laudatory address - an interesting choice, given the often fraught relationship between the two that has had some commentators pointing to a notable cooling in the once so warm Franco-German relations.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Sarkozy spent a good portion of his time basking in the glory of his own rhethoric and professing his “love” for Angela Merkel (in what was almost the political equivalent of Tom Cruise’s couch jumping episode).

Ahead of the French Presidency of the European Union, which begins on July 1, President Sarkozy is trying to portray himself and his agenda in the right (spot)light. Attempting to borrow from Germany’s EU diplomatic toolkit, he has sent his immigration minister, Brice Hortefeux, on a whistle-stop tour of the European capitals in an attempt to forge a compromise on this tenuous policy area, much like the German Chancellor was able to craft an early agreement on environmental policy.

Most recently, he is working toward reminding everyone of his importance in the European construct by withdrawing his support for Tony Blair as the first long-term President of the European Union (following the changes agreed in the Lisbon Reform Treaty). The story is interesting for its potential tactical significance, as it was Sarkozy who first mentioned Blair as a contender when discussions on possible candidates arose a few months ago. Today, member states pencilled in first “substantive” talks about who might assume the bloc’s top job for a summit in Brussels on June 19-20. Sarkozy now argues, there can only be two serious contenders for the job: Luxembourg’s Prime Minister, Jean-Claude Juncker and current EU Commission President Barroso. But analysts believe that Sarko has not completely dropped Blair from his bracket, and wants to side with whichever candidate looks the most promising as his own Presidency of the Union evolves so that he then can be seen as “king maker”. For now, Sarkozy has ruled Blair out for failing to introduce the Euro and negotiating a series of opt-outs that took Britain further away from the Union, rather than fulfilling his one-time campaign promise, to put his country back into “the heart of Europe.”

The nomination for the EU President and for all subsequent key roles created by the Lisbon Reform Treaty will surely be a new chapter in mature Union diplomacy and extremely interesting to watch. What all EU players need, however, for this process to have its democratic legitimacy (however small), is a resounding “Yes” vote in the Irish referendum on the new Treaty. EU citizens, meanwhile, still want a high-profile figure as the first official “head” of the EU-27 - someone with global clout - and here early surveys are pointing to none other than Tony Blair. For the first time in a long time it looks as if actual EU policy (as opposed to member state haggling) could get interesting - and perhaps even a little dirty.

Europeans took to the polls over the weekend, with perhaps unsurprising results: Spain’s socialist Prime Minister Zapatero was reelected against a bland looking Mariano Rajoy, despite an economic crisis that still has to fully play out and France’s governing UMP was given a shake-up in communal elections, serving as a warning sign that the electorate is unhappy with the ‘Hyper-President’s’ globe-trotting, star-marrying, self-aggrandizing ways.

 What will this change for EU policy making? Not much. In fact: probably nothing. The Zapatero government is, as all post-Franco Spanish governments very pro-European. Difficulties arise over fisheries policies and minority issues, among other things, but that is ‘normal’ EU business. What the Economist points out, however, is that Zapatero’s reelection could mean bad news for a prime minister who is already out of office: Tony Blair.

Where’s the connection, you (rightly) ask? Well, according to the Economist’s Europe blog, officials in the Council of Ministers are ruminating whether this vote means Mr. Blair’s chances of becoming the Union’s first standing president have fallen back to, well, nil. Because of their similarity in leadership style and their same political family, both men could come up against each other, but with Blair’s anti-European (think Iraq war) stance, Zapatero could win out. The air in Brussels is rife with speculation on the entire presidency issue and of course nothing is set and done, as the Lisbon Reform Treaty is still in the ratification process, but these rumors will be interesting to watch. These two might not be so friendly with each other as the months drag on.

 Update (March 4, 20 Der Spiegel is reporting that the “cold snap” between the Franco-German partners is thawing, following a “constructive” meeting in which President Sarkozy agreed to a compromise to extend negotiations on a future Mediterranean Union to all 27 EU Member States, not just bordering countries. Quoting the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung the Spiegel notes that Chancellor Merkel’s misgivings stemmed not so much from German concerns over the issue, but rather her European perspective of the proposed bloc, which is to closely cooperate on issues pertaining to border security, immigration and Mideast peace. Merkel wants to see the Union built upon the already existing Barcelona Process.

Though both leaders were quick to underline their willingness to compromise and work together on key issues in their joint Hanover statement on March 3rd, the necessity to stress a collaborative mindset alone is an indication that not all is well in the Franco-German tandem.

For France the object of being a driving force in the European Union - as part of the Franco-German tandem - was often ascribed to its desire to continue the self-aggrandizing politicking of “la grande nation” through different means. As the only European nuclear “super power,” the ‘other’ large European power, Germany, rarely had a problem conceding big brother status to France. The partnership has seen its share of vivid imagery borrowed from the world of transportation - the tandem, the motor, the driving force of European integration. Irrespective of personal differences throughout history (Schmidt and Giscard didn’t start out as friends, and Chirac and Schroeder could surely have been more chaleureux) the unwritten rules in European policy making for “the big two” dictated that major advances from either side be checked with the partner on the other side of the Rhein first. All this was surely true until the conclusion of the Nice Treaty negotiations, when Jacques Chirac’s demanding behaviour irked more than just the Germans. While the rift was felt then, the introduction of new players into the constellation (the Weimar triangle, including Poland for one) and the practical bargaining games around a larger table have seemingly let the air out of the tandem’s tires.

Cracks in the veneer began to show around the negotiations for a Constitution for Europe, but tensions sparked over the Turkey question with the last German government, who favored Turkish accession to the Union. While current governments in both country’s are thinking more along the same lines with respect to a further enlargement round to include the big man on the Bosperus, France’s newest advance across it’s bordering waters is raising a few eyebrows in Germany.

In its February 21st edition, The Economist, chronicles the fate of President Sarkozy’s next big idea: the Mediterranean Union. The launch of this ‘grand projet‘ is to fall squarely into the French EU presidency, which starts in the summer, and is intended to tackle non-ideological issues, such as transport, sea safety and to a certain degree border control and immigration. All well, all good, except for ‘la grande question’: Why? EU bordering countries have been closely bound to the Union through the Barcelona Process and the European Neighborhood Policy, thus other EU member states are having a hard time reading Mr. Sarkozy’s project as little more than a prestige object.

Most concerned, according to the Economist are - yes, the Germans:

“Not only did the new union seem devised to exclude them but its relation to the EU has been muddled. At first, the French did not see it as an EU matter. But this, viewed from Berlin, looked like an aggressive move to launch a rival body without following the cherished tradition of Franco-German co-operation. Now that the French have made the launch of the project a quasi-EU event, there is a new concern: finance. Dark voices in Berlin worry that Mr Sarkozy may try to use EU money to take the political credit for projects on the southern shore of the Mediterranean, home to several ex-French colonies.“

Does make you wonder, though, doesn’t it? Whom exactly is Mr. Sarkozy aiming to please?

Even more suspicious to the Germans - Sarkozy is veiling his argumentation in favor of his Mediterranean Union plans in terms of the fabled “avant garde” - essentially the provisions in the new Lisbon Treaty that allow certain countries to move ahead on certain policy areas, paving the way for the much critiqued two-speed Europe (which, to a certain extent already exists through the exemptions of the UK and Denmark on certain social protocols, and in another form in the close cooperation on defence matters among other groups of member states). “Those who want to proceed must be able to do so together,” declared Mr Sarkozy, using a line more commonly deployed by EU enthusiasts against Britain, “but those who don’t want to must not stop the others from moving forward,” the Economist quotes Sarkozy as saying. Needless to say, perhaps, the Germans are not invited to the July 13th meeting, in which he plans to unveil his blueprint for the Mediterranean Union. I have a feeling, a little touch of motor oil will not be enough to keep the Franco-German motor humming, having hit yet another road block.

Additional background information can be found here, here and here.