For those of you unfamiliar with Stratfor.com, it’s one of the most compelling forecasting organizations in the U.S. today on international issues.  Founded by George Friedman, who features heavily in this year’s Great Decisions Television series, their predictions are not always right, but always thought-provoking.

Here is a video dispatch on what’s to come for Europe in 2010, as the Lisbon Treaty comes into effect.

Is Europe suffering from a hope-defict? Dominique Moisi a visiting professor at Harvard thinks so and he outlines (in the Brussels beltway premier Newspaper the European Voice) that this may delay Europe’s revovery from economic crisis. Citizens of the US, on the other hand, he believes suffer from an excess of individual fear of how the crisis will affect them (unemployment without benefits, sickness without healthcare). And he makes the point that we can each learn from each other. Europe can rouse ourselves from our “collective morosis” and learn  from the hope, optomism and sense of personal destiny of Americans. The US, on the other hand can learn from the social protections of Europe which enable a fairer society and a reduction of fear in citizens, the US must not maintain “a people armed to the teeth with guns yet entirely disarmed in the face of illness”.

It is a very thought-provoking Article and the author concludes that Europe will have a harder job of inculcating hope in its citizens than the US will in lessening its citizen’s fear. However, this, I belive underestimates the level of resistance within the political system. It’s often said that the US decentralised and fragmented political system comes up with the most innovative and often the best solutions to political problems, which it then resists like hell due to that same fragmented system, then often leaving Europe to steal and lead on these ideas. Will European politics now follow America’s lead and sew hope in its citizens? And will the US politcal system resist Obama’s healthcare proposals to death? In any case, it reminds us how much the US and Europe still have to learn from each other.

Hope needs to go to Europe! (with thanks to image from thegeographyofhope.com)

When the French Finance Minister says that the EU needs to cooperate with the US,  that’s when you know the economic crisis is really devestating! Perhaps that’s a bit unfair to the French, as Ms. Christine Lagarde in part of the most pro-US Government  in French history, under Americophile President Sarkozy. But it would also be unfair to Ms. Lagarde who has spent years working in a US company before entering government. She made her remarks at her acceptance of the Transatlantic Business Award from American Chamber of Commerce. However, she probably did more for US perceptions of the Franch in her appearance on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart a number of months ago (it helps that her english is absolutely perfect).  In her award-acceptence, she stated that the EU & the US could share common ground on major economic issues and stated that ties had to rebuilt after a period of strain, much like a marriage.

 Christine Lagarde, French Finance Minister.

As Jon Stewart of the Daily Show said, the unwritten understanding between the US  & Europe during the US elections was: We elect Obama, you love us again. A survey today in the Wall Street Journal shows that though this has generally true, the view of Europeans regarding the dominance of US culture is somewhat more nuanced. For example almost double the amount of Europeans feel the US has a negative influence on cultural affairs than a postive influence.  Two thirds still feel the US exerts a ngative influence on world affairs, however an even greater proportion feel this is changing.  

So the verdict of Europe’s citizens seems to be, the moves are good, but you’ve still got to win back our hearts

AFP is reporting that Europe & the US will shortly issue a joint declaration on the closure of Guantanamo which will stress the fundamental values of both in order to encourage the Europeans to help out in closing Guantanamo.  As I blogged before, EU governments are currently considering whether to accept inmates and get President Obama out of the political bind that is the relocation of these (mainly unprocecuteable and probably innocent) inmates. The European Council for Foreign Relations has called for Europe to grap the opportunity to cement transatlantic relations in their report:  Beyond the “War on Terrorism”: Tpward a new Transatlantic framework for Counterterrorism. The Justice Ministers of the EU will meet in June to explore the issue further.

Next Wednesday negotiations will begin on a possible EU/Canada trade deal. A study has estimated that the deal  could bring real income gains of €20billion annually for both partners. Which only makes the absence of a similar EU/US deal more conspicious. In fact it is the increased protectionist feeling in the US that has blocked momentum toward such a deal. The EU already has a free-trade deal with Mexico, so if the Canadian deal suceeds the US will be at a distinct trade-disadvantage with the EU, in comparison to its nearest neighbours.  This matters for the US because the EU is its biggest export market. Traditionally in favour of such deals, Frank Vargo of the US National Association of Manufacturers has stated that it would be a mistake for the Obama administration to join negotiations between the EU and Canada because the groundwork has not been laid in Congress or among key stakeholders. This at a time when free trade deals with tiny Panama, Colombia & South Korea are currently stalled in the US Congress.

Indeed, the Financial Times has stated that stated that fears of such protectionist forces in its biggest export market have pushed Canada to negotiate this deal. The US, as teh traditional cheerleader for free trade, risks being left behind in a new global trend towards free trade to asuage the worst effects of the financial crisis.

 The future for free trade?

(May 13th : Here, the Canadian Prime-Minister suggests that Canada could become the EU gateway to North American markets, offering a more stable partner than the US).

It’s understandable that American leaders believe they have a stake in the EU, as each other’s main trading partners, leaders of the developed world, and the fact that the political project EU would never have existed without US support and encouragemnet. Therefore George Bush and now President Obama are probably mystified at the negative reaction to their declared support of Turkish membership of the EU. The French and Austrians have publically dismissed the Obama comments while Chancellor Merkel of Germany has again questioned the whole idea of Turkish membership.

Turkey was given candidate status for membership of the EU in 2005, under intense pressure from Tony Blair and the US administration seeing a chance for progress under the moderate AK party regime. Since then, Turkey has made little progress on the substantial reforms necessary for membership. Essentially, any country that wants join has to transform its system into a liberal democracy, with extensive Human Rights provisions, strong seperate Governmental Institutions and a strong Civil society, areas where Turkey is still lacking. Indeed, Newsweek commented last week that Prime Minister Erdogan may be losing his will to take Turkey further down the road of integration with the EU.

But geting back to American leaders feeling they have a stake in the EU - this is something to which European bristle audibly. One blogger, for example, commented “why is EU membership being spoken of as a US foreign policy tool? ” To Member-States, the EU is not like NATO - it’s many times more important. If you look to measure the imporatntce of the EU in a very crude way, about half of legislation of EU Member States is from the EU, national politicians and officials spend large amounts of their working time in countless of  EU committees & councils. Decisions take in the EU, in short, have a huge impact on Member-States. Turkey would be one of the largest members of the EU and would wield a large amount of power in EU decision making.

Though the analogy is not exactly correct, it could be like Europe calling for Mexico to be admitted to the United States of America, an act that could profoundly unbalance the political entity that is the USA. Europe will need time and certainty before it takes such a step, and pressure from the USA may be having the opposite effect than what is intended.

Will red eventually turn blue?

President Obama arrives in Prague on Saturday on the last leg of his European odyssey in order to participate in an EU-USA summit. The Agenda of his visit is here, it includes lots of the usual formal meetings with the Czech Prime-Minister Topolanek and Czech President Klaus. However as the New York Times reports, the Obamas will forego the usual State Dinner on Saturday evening and will instead share a romantic dinner in Prague, one of the most beautiful cities in Europe.

As well as the obious benefits for their marriage and well-being, there are probably 2 political reasons.  Prime-Minister Topolanek was voted out of office last week giving the anti-EU  President Klaus a lot more say in dictating European policy, there are worries about what the eratic Klaus might say to Obama. Anohter reason is that the day after being ousted, Topolanek was also quoted in the European Parliament as saying the US style stimulus spending was the “road to hell”, a comment that would not endeer him ot Obama.  One political scientist has suggested another reason: “Obama’s goal is … to have a picture taken with (former Czech president and anti-Communist resistance icon) Vaclav Havel”, Obama will meet Havel later that day. He is much more interested n the Czech leaders of the past tahn the current rag-tag bunch.

The highlight of the Agenda, besides the EU-USA summit, is the Public speech Obama will deliver on Sunday morning on the topic of “a world without nuclear weapons”. In his speech in London he admitted that the US had often failed to appreciate “Europe’s leading role in the world” but he also pointed out the insidious anti-US feeling that exists in Europe. He challenged Europe by sayng “America is changing, but it cannot be America alone that changes.” It will be interesting to see what challenges Obama will pose for the world in his speech on Sunday.

Obamas to dine in one of Europe’s most beautiful cities

As President Obama tours Europe trying to get support for his iniatitives, especially in Afghanistan - one commentator says the most successful method of getting what the US wants from Europe is to ignore it and wait for it to come around to your policy. According to Stephen Sestanovich writing in this month’s Foreign Policy magazine:

For decades after the Second World War, the great achievement of U.S. foreign policy was precisely to channel — and sometimes, to ignore — European preferences, while patiently calming the resentments that followed.

Ignore us - we secretly like it….

Timothy Garton Ash asks whether Europe is divided and weak at the G20.  As I blogged before, there have been talks at an EU level between the participating G20 nations (UK, France, Italy & Germany) to try to come to a common position, but Ash argues that the lack of a strong united front will lead to a a G2 of the US & China.